China’s decision to eliminate tariffs on imports from African countries marks a significant shift in global trade relations and could reshape the trajectory of Africa’s energy sector. Beginning 1 May, 2026, African exports will enter the Chinese market duty-free opening what appears to be unprecedented opportunities for the continent. However, beyond the surface, this policy intersects directly with energy, industrialization and geopolitics. It raises a critical question: WILL AFRICA LEVERAGE THIS OPPORTUNITY TO TRANSFORM ITS ENERGY SECTOR OR WILL IT DEEPEN ITS TRADITIONAL ROLE AS A SUPPLIER OF RAW MATERIALS?
Energy transition and the rising demand for African minerals
Africa’s trade relationship with China has long been driven by primary commodities, particularly minerals and energy resources. With tariffs removed, exports of these resources are likely to increase significantly. However, the definition of “energy” is evolving. The global shift toward clean energy has placed minerals such as Lithium, Cobalt, Copper, Nickel and Graphite at the centre of energy systems. These minerals are essential for electric vehicles, battery storage and renewable energy infrastructure.
Several African countries are already key players in this space. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) remains the world’s leading supplier of cobalt, a critical component in battery technology while Zambia continues to dominate copper production which is essential for electrification and grid expansion. Zimbabwe and Namibia are emerging as important lithium producers, positioning themselves within the rapidly growing electric vehicle supply chain. With China aggressively expanding its electric mobility sector, the zero-tariff policy strengthens its ability to source these minerals more cheaply and reliably from Africa.
China’s electric vehicle strategy and Africa’s role
China’s push into electric vehicles and clean energy technologies is central to understanding this policy. As one of the world’s largest producers of electric vehicles, China requires a steady and secure supply of raw materials to sustain its manufacturing dominance. Africa has become a strategic partner in this regard.
Countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia are already deeply integrated into China’s mineral supply chains with significant Chinese investment in mining operations. Similarly, Lithium projects in Zimbabwe have attracted strong Chinese interest with processing facilities increasingly being developed to serve export markets. While this creates economic opportunities, it also raises concerns that Africa may remain largely confined to the lower end of the value chain exporting raw or semi-processed materials while manufacturing continues to take place in China.
Uneven gain across African economies
The benefits of China’s zero-tariff policy are unlikely to be evenly distributed across the continent. Resource-rich countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia and Namibia are likely to experience increased demand for their minerals alongside rising foreign investment. However, without strong policies on benefaction, these countries risk deepening their dependence on extractive industries.
In contrast, more industrialized economies such as South Africa, Morocco and Kenya are better positioned to take advantage of the policy by exporting higher-value goods. South Africa, for example, has an established automotive and manufacturing sector that could integrate into global electric vehicle supply chains while Morocco has already positioned itself as a hub for automotive assembly and renewable energy development. Kenya, with its growing industrial base and strategic location in East Africa could leverage tariff-free access to expand exports of processed goods and energy-related products.
Emerging energy producers such as Mozambique and Senegal also stand to benefit, particularly in the oil and gas sector. Mozambique’s liquefied natural gas projects and Senegal’s offshore gas developments could see increased demand from global markets including China. However, as the world moves towards cleaner energy, these countries will need to carefully balance fossil fuel exports with long-term sustainability goals.
Uganda’s strategic position in the Energy landscape
Within this evolving landscape, Uganda occupies a unique and strategic position. While traditionally known for agricultural exports such as coffee, Uganda is gradually emerging as an energy player, particularly with its oil and gas developments and expanding electricity generation capacity.
China has already played a significant role in Uganda’s energy infrastructure, financing major projects such as the Karuma and Isimba hydropower plants. These projects have significantly increased Uganda’s electricity supply, providing a foundation for industrialization. With the zero-tariff policy in place, Uganda has an opportunity to deepen its economic engagement with China, not only through exports but also through increased investment in energy and industrial infrastructure.
At the same time, Uganda’s oil sector, particularly developments around the Albertine Graben positions it as a future exporter of energy resources. While oil may not benefit directly from tariff removal in the same way as manufactured goods, the broader strengthening of trade relations with China could enhance investment flows and long-term energy partnerships.
The missing link: Minerals and regional value chains
One of Uganda’s key limitations is its relatively small role in the critical minerals space. Unlike the Democratic Republic of Congo or Zambia, Uganda is not a major exporter of cobalt or copper. However, this does not mean it is excluded from the energy transition. Through regional integration frameworks such as the African Continental Free Trade Area, Uganda can position itself within broader value chains.
For example, minerals extracted in the Democratic Republic of Congo could be processed or transported through East African corridors involving Uganda, while regional power pools could support energy-intensive industries. By leveraging its geographic position and growing energy capacity, Uganda can become a strategic hub for logistics, processing and industrial activity linked to the energy sector.
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Profit expatriation and limited domestic gains
A critical but often under-examined concern in Africa’s energy engagement with China is the issue of profit expatriation. Many of the key actors driving large-scale investments in energy infrastructure and mineral extraction across the continent are Chinese state-owned enterprises or firms operating with strong state backing. While these entities undeniably provide much needed capital, technical expertise and project execution capacity, their operating models often prioritize the repatriation of profits, dividends and returns to China rather than reinvestment within host economies.
This challenge is not merely theoretical, it is embedded in the financial and contractual architecture of many of these projects. Large infrastructure and energy developments are frequently financed through concessional or semi-concessional loans tied to Chinese contractors, equipment and supply chains. As a result, a significant portion of project expenditure never fully enters the domestic economy, as funds are effectively recycled back to Chinese firms through procurement arrangements. In addition, profit-sharing agreements, tax incentives and stabilization clauses in investment contracts can further reduce the share of revenues retained by host governments over time.
In resource-rich countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia, this dynamic is particularly visible. Despite generating billions of dollars in mineral exports especially cobalt and copper, local economies often capture only a limited fraction of the total value. Processing, refining and high-value manufacturing typically occur outside the continent while profits from extraction are transferred abroad. The result is a disconnect between national resource wealth and local development outcomes with mining regions frequently characterized by underdeveloped infrastructure, limited access to electricity and persistent poverty.
For Uganda, similar concerns are emerging albeit in a slightly different form. Chinese involvement in major hydropower projects such as Karuma has been instrumental in expanding generation capacity though questions remain about the long-term economic returns. Debt servicing obligations, coupled with the structure of engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts mean that a substantial portion of financial flows associated with these projects accrues externally. As Uganda moves closer to oil production, the risk is that without robust fiscal frameworks and carefully negotiated production-sharing agreements, a significant share of oil revenues could follow a similar trajectory.
Moreover, profit expatriation is often compounded by limited local participation in supply chains. In many cases, high-value roles ranging from engineering and project management to specialized technical services are dominated by foreign firms and labour. This reduces opportunities for skills transfer and limits the development of domestic industries that could otherwise benefit from energy and mineral investments. The absence of strong local content policies further exacerbates this imbalance, allowing capital-intensive projects to operate with minimal integration into the host economy.
Within the context of China’s zero-tariff policy, these dynamics could become even more pronounced. As exports of minerals and energy resources increase, so too does the volume of value flowing out of the continent if structural issues remain unaddressed. Tariff-free access may boost export figures, but without mechanisms to retain and reinvest earnings locally, the broader developmental impact will remain constrained.
Ultimately, the issue is not the presence of foreign investment but the terms under which it operates. Without strong fiscal regimes, transparent contractual arrangements and enforceable local content requirements, African countries risk participating in global energy value chains on highly unequal terms. In such a scenario, the zero-tariff policy may succeed in increasing trade volumes but fail to deliver meaningful economic transformation leaving Africa resource-rich yet value-poor.
The risk of reinforcing extractive economies
Despite its potential benefits, China’s zero-tariff policy carries significant risks. Among them is the possibility that it will reinforce Africa’s long-standing role as a supplier of raw materials. Increased demand for minerals and energy resources could drive extraction without necessarily leading to industrial development or improved energy access for local populations. For example, while countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo generate substantial revenue from cobalt exports, much of the value addition occurs outside the continent. Similarly, Zambia’s copper is often exported in raw or minimally processed form, limiting its ability to capture higher economic value. Without deliberate policy interventions, the zero-tariff regime could accelerate this pattern across multiple countries.
Turning opportunity into transformation
Despite these challenges, the zero-tariff policy also presents a unique opportunity for Africa to redefine its role in the global energy system. Countries that invest in local value addition, such as processing lithium into battery components or refining copper for industrial use can capture a greater share of economic benefits.
Regional cooperation will be critical in this regard. By linking resource-rich countries with industrial hubs, Africa can build integrated value chains that support manufacturing and innovation. For Uganda, this means ensuring that its expanding energy capacity is aligned with industrial development, creating jobs and driving economic growth.
Equally important is the need for strategic negotiation with China. African governments must prioritize technology transfer, local content requirements and skills development to ensure that partnerships lead to long-term capacity building rather than short-term gains.
A defining moment for Africa and Uganda
China’s zero-tariff policy represents a defining moment for Africa’s energy future. It has the potential to accelerate trade, attract investment and integrate the continent more deeply into global energy value chains. However, it also risks entrenching patterns of dependency and inequality if not carefully managed.
For Uganda, the policy offers a window of opportunity to position itself within this evolving landscape. With growing energy infrastructure, emerging oil production and a strategic location in East Africa, Uganda has the tools to move beyond being a passive participant in global trade.
The ultimate outcome will depend on the choices made today. Africa can either use this moment to build resilient, value-driven energy economies or continue exporting its wealth while importing its future.
